Thursday, November 12, 2015

FanDuel -Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft Headed to The Big House? (and we're not talking about Michigan)

What's It About? 

FanDuel and Draft Kings plan to continue business in New York, despite a warning from NY State AG Eric Schneiderman that wagers on fantasy sports are illegal gambling in NY.  FanDuel has responded to Schneiderman with a barrage of TV ads in which CEO Nigel Eccles argues that fantasy sports are a game of skill not chance and a veiled threat that Schneiderman, a politician with ambitions for higher office, is making a serious mistake tampering with the liberties of New Yorkers.

Who's right?  

Legally, Schneiderman. Gambling in NY includes betting on the outcome of a future contingent event not under the bettor's control or influence. Yes, it takes skill to select the right QB, RB, WR, Defense, etc. to assemble a winning fantasy entry.  It also takes skill to pick the right horses when you bet a trifecta at Saratoga. Both are still gambling, despite the element of skill, because the bettor does not influence the outcome, whether it's the statistical performance of the selected football players or the  order of finish of the race horses.

Ethically, both sides have some major issues, but on balance Schneiderman wins again.  Fantasy sports betting targets the  audience of young males who are most likely to become gambling addicts.  The free starter cash featured in the ads is the first taste.  The ads focus on big winners, but the amounts returned as winnings are a shockingly low percentage of the amounts wagered, well under half  the return a gambler might expect at a casino or racetrack.  In short, FanDuel and Draft Kings are making a fast fortune catering to addicted chumps; pretty seedy - despite the glitzy owners roster that includes Jones, Kraft, ESPN, Disney, Fox, Google and three major sports leagues.

NY's position on gambling is a model of hypocrisy.  The state operates a heavily advertised lottery that also offers a fairly low payout compared to revenues received (although still far better than Fantasy)  It supports legal gambling on horse racing at the track and via OTB. It already offers the Racino (horse racing plus slots and other gambling machines) at several locations and casino gambling is available at some native American sites, with full scale casino gambling on the way for several new sites. Still, the State directs some of its gambling revenues to worthy causes (including help for compulsive gamblers) and manages the payout ratio, while the Fantasy sports sites are simply pocketing a much higher percentage of the amounts wagered as profits, with no social benefit whatsoever.  So, even if NY's position is partially just protecting it's own monopoly, it is a less rapacious predator than the fantasy sites.

Politically, we'll see.  The chumps who bet on fantasy sports don't realize they are chumps and they will get mad if they lose their opportunity to lose their shirts, but they probably aren't in the highest voting demographic.  FanDuel and Draft Kings can and will spend a lot on ads and lobbying if they see any chance to preserve their business. Schneiderman is one year into  his second term without much name recognition and may be ready to take some risks to raise his profile in the hope of seeking higher office.

What's Next?

FanDuel and Draft Kings can operate with no direct presence in NY, but they need to collect from NY bettors.  Banks and others involved in the payment system will likely shut off payments rather than risk facing criminal charges for aiding and abetting.  Then we have a short term battle of temporary restraining orders and preliminary injections.   If the courts back Schneiderman in the short term battle, but Draft King and Fan Duel find a way to keep taking New Yorker's money, it could get exciting.   If the board members (who do have a NY presence and ties to some of those glitzy owners) are active in the business, Schneiderman might set off some real fireworks by going after them with criminal charges.

Monday, June 24, 2013

The Buc's Man from Horace Mann

Make a quick visit to the Wikipedia page listing notable alumni of the Horace Mann School.  You will see some interesting names, and remember some old headlines:  Roy Cohn, chief lawyer for McCarthyism, Renee Richards, opthamologist and transgender tennis pro, Barry Sheck, OJ defender and founder of The Innocence Project, Eliot Spitzer, ex NY governor laid low by a prostitution scandal and, there in the upper left corner under A, is "Pedro Alvarez - baseballer".  For some odd reason, Alvarez is the only listing that includes an occupation (assuming "baseballer" was an awkward preppy stab at identifying a profession), or anything more than just a name, but his name alone will soon be enough.   Horace Mann is so exclusive that even hedge fund billionaires worry about getting their children admitted. The school and its grads aren't quite used to dealing with alumni who become pro baseball stars.

In the case of Alvarez, the alumni may have to get used to it.  The twenty six year old slugger is a Dominican-American who grew up in New York.  He was a prep star at Horace Mann (pictured) and a first round draft pick after three productive seasons at Vanderbilt.  He hit thirty home runs for the Pirates last year.   He has also hit some rough patches in his pro career, including an o for April slump this year that was so horrible it made me wonder if Alvarez could ever be anything more than a platoon player hitting seventh against righties.

After a hot June, including home runs in each of his last four games, Alvarez is looking like a star on the rise.  With the season less than half over he has 19 Home Runs and 51 RBIs.  His batting average has been a consistent sore spot, but he's hit .272 since that April slump ended and his on base percentage finally inched across the .300 line.  At age twenty six, it's not unrealistic to hope for even better things to come, especially since many size XXL lefty sluggers take a little extra time to mature as major league hitters.

The Pirates as a team are off to a strong start for the third straight season.  Right now they have the second best record in baseball and trail the division leading Cards by one game.  The Bucs swooned after the all star break in 2011 and 2012.   A dangerous slugger in the middle of the lineup is exactly what the Pirates need to avoid another second half collapse.  So, Pedro, please, keep that intensity and Horace Mann, try not to get too insulted when you become known as a jock school.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Still Punk - Only the Budget Is Grown Up

My daughter Shannon just returned from a month-long stint as road manager for a coast to coast tour by Colleen Green and her band.  Ms Green is a punk minimalist (my old fogey characterization - probably not shared by anyone involved in today's music scene, but watch this link and decide for yourself).  She travels with a bassist and a drum machine, and that is all.

It's not just the music that's minimalist.  The tour could not be farther from the rock stereotype of trashed hotel rooms, desiccated mini-bars and room service tabs exceeding the GDP of Turkmenistan.  The drum machine may be the biggest spender in the band.

What happened to bad girl rock?  Economics.  The primary source of music revenue shifted from CD sales to live gate.  Ms Green's label, hardlyartrecords, sponsors the tour and makes a commitment to cover expenses, but the band (and manager) work for a share of the net profits.  With this incentive, the luxury bus charter turns into a rental car, the four star hotel into a friend's couch - you get the picture. A little less for Rolling Stone to write about, but it all makes perfect sense.  A punk on the stage can be a grown up on the road and still make the crowd feel the music.

I am sticking to the business of rock and leaving any stories of life on the road to my daughter.  With any luck, you may be able to find a link here before too long.

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Bos'n Paul Ryan - Not Ready For Stand-Up Comedy

So, did you hear the one about the Congressman who ran in Kentucky on a platform of Death Panels, Nanny State and Socialism?  He won because his opponent was soft on gun control.

As Steve Rattner notes in today's NY Times, Congress is moving slow astern with the sequester when the economy still needs full ahead.  Budget scolds like Paul Ryan view the sequester as a triumph, even as we go dead in the water while  nearing the shoals of double dip recession.  This is no surprise. Ryan may have a great workout routine in the gym, but as a stand-up, his routine would be missing both of the critical stand-up comedy basics - honesty and timing.

Let's start with honesty, and give Representative Ryan some points for recognizing the obvious.  Nations need to limit their debt and demonstrate budget discipline. The thesis that debt exceeding 90% of GDP is a drag on growth now appears to be overstated, but at some level of debt and deficit, the government will face rising interest costs (producing a spiral of ever higher debt and deficit) and unacceptably high inflation. Right now interest rates paid by the US Treasury are low because safe investment alternatives are scarce, but this won't last forever. Representative Ryan is also correct in noting that Medicare and Medicaid loom large on the horizon of government obligations as our population ages and medical costs soar.

So,  Paul Ryan is a cute, personable guy who's honest enough to talk about serious deficit issues, why no prospects for a second career in stand-up?  Well, let's take a closer look at honesty and think about timing too.  The time to run a surplus is when the economy is booming. The $238 Billion surplus in 2000 was our largest ever.  We could have maintained a significant surplus right through 2007, retired more than a trillion of that debt Paul is so worried about and demonstrated the kind of budget discipline that would help keep interest rates low even in our deficit years.  Instead Paul Ryan chose to spend like a drunken sailor - that's right, Bos'n Paul gave us the Bush tax cuts, Medicare Part D and the War in Iraq - what could have been surplus for those boom years became a widening deficit.  Now, when the economy needs fiscal stimulus, Bos'n Paul has decided to sober up.

It's not just a timing problem.  Even now, in the middle of a recession that is still punishing a generation of new workers, Bos'n Paul is less sober than he seems.  End of life care, prevention and administrative expense are the low hanging fruit of medical cost reduction - the places to start if you want results. An early version of Obamacare included advisory boards to assist families with difficult end of life care decisions, a process in which elderly and very infirm patients frequently receive painful, unnecessary, unwanted and expensive surgeries shortly before death because doctors sometimes recommend them and the families just can't say no.  Naturally Bos'n Paul welcomed this baby step in the direction of reducing end of life care costs, right? Not quite, he bellied up to the bar and  after a few shots he began screaming, "Death Panels" ,over and over and over.

When it comes to prevention, Paul Ryan is all for anything that will save a health care buck - ban the big gulp, require posting of nutritional information, support programs that bring improved diet and exercise to the poor and working, but uninsured, poor, build clinics that treat illness before it requires exorbitantly expensive hospital care - Not!  Bos'n Paul won't spend a nickel even when he knows it will save a dollar.  He does secretly like the big gulp ban, but only because it gives him a chance to have a few drinks with his budget scold shipmates and scream, "Nanny State', over and over and over.

Surely a guy like Paul Ryan would consider anything to cut administrative costs, right?  Well, single payer health care systems like Canada spend less than 2% of what the US does on per capita administrative costs. Normally a market would function more efficiently than a large government bureaucracy, but in health care the demand (that would be the patients) doesn't really get to shop around between suppliers.  Even when a patient has a choice, there are usually no posted prices. Insurance companies and employers are health care middlemen who sometimes limit choice, but always add layers of administrative expense and prevent the functioning of anything resembling a true market.  Why not at least consider expanding the single payer system we use for Medicare? This approach, or even the much watered down "public option" that was ultimately dropped from Obamacare, can't get a serious hearing because the insurance and medical lobbies are just too powerful.  Bos'n Paul would rather take their campaign contributions (someone has to pay for all those drinks) and shout "Socialism" over and over and over.

What do you get if add a sequester to a recession?  A depression and a lot of new Congressman.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Shakespeare Upset Victor Over Vegas

Dreamcatcher presents 'The Language Archive', a romantic comedy  at Oakes Center in Summit
Shakespeare in Vegas, a consistently smart, funny  and engaging creation of Playwright Suzanne Bradbeer is staged jointly by Dreamcatcher Rep and Playrights Theatre at Oakes Center in Summit, NJ.  The structure leans slyly on three Shakespeare classics, but it's really just another instance of a valiant man (or mobster) with a dream (or an obsession?) of building a fitting shrine to Shakespeare (or a large scale model??)  in a special place (Vegas???), to honor the memory of his Sardinian grandmother, (or  her martyred donkey????).  Laura Ekstrand shines all night as Cleopatra, the Nurse (well, maybe Juliet), Lady Macbeth and Margot- a veteran actor who's gone from sweet ingenue to aging, sometimes bitter and still basically unknown veteran.  Margot finds her way back to personal integrity, and maybe even romance, as the star in a surreal Shakespearian Theater struggling for survival in that bastion of culture and accountability - Las Vegas.  Eli Ganias, as Tony, is a one note goodfella for a few scenes, and then keeps digging deeper as his character expands.  Rachael Lee and Jessica O'Hara-Baker are having almost as much fun as they provide to the audience while playing a whacky stripper and a Hooters' heiress, both  excited by their shot at real acting, but not quite getting the whole Shakespeare thing.

Even without the Shakespeare backing, there's a multi-level plot here that is far more than serviceable.  The real treat is the dialogue, especially the barrage of one liners launched by Margot, who knows her theater and her Shakespeare, at a supporting case who knows Vegas.

Only one day left to catch this in Summit, but with any luck it may turn up off Broadway.  OK, I realize Summit is not on Broadway, but I'm thinking lower Manhattan.  This is a new show, workshopped through Dreamcatcher and Playwrights; it's already too good to end and it might get even better if it can find a venue.


Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Profiles in Cowardice

There's a book on the shelf in my library authored (Note 1) by an ambitious young  politician who wanted to burnish his intellectual credentials before his first run for office. The book offers case studies of United States Senators who voted their conscience, voted their conscience when it was massively, wildly, incredibly unpopular, voted their conscience when it meant suicide in their next bid for reelection.  Today 46 Senators voted against a watered-down gun control bill that did nothing more than extend background checks from dealer sales to Internet and gun show sales.  There was no Constitutional or logical principal at stake.  Polls showed that 90% of the national population, over 85% of Republicans and 80% of  gun owners agreed with expanded background checks.

This was not a vote of conscience, it was a vote of fear.  Fear of the targeted wrath of the gun lobby, particularly the NRA.  Do not confuse the NRA with its members, who often poll rationally on gun control issues.  When it comes to politics, the NRA is a spokesperson for the gun manufacturers, who provide the bulk of the NRA's money and view human life as inconsequential when it stands in the way of selling more guns.

Today the Senate reached a new low.  The very  idea of voting on principle in the face of constituent disapproval - the profile in courage- is now unthinkable.  Today's moral issue is - can you vote on principle, with the support of your constituents, when you know the gun lobby will be gunning for you in your next reelection  bid? Today,  46 Senators (Note 2) cowered, quaked and answered, No!

Note 1 - Yes, I know JFK had feet of clay and that Profiles in Courage was probably ghosted by writers on the payroll of his father (who had a torso of clay).  I don't care.  The book, however it came about, was an inspiration to me, a congenital dissenter.  I would be happy to distribute free copies to today's Senate.
Note 2 -Actually 45, as Senator Reid voted, "No", to preserve future procedural options once he knew the bill was doomed to fail.

Sunday, March 31, 2013

All In The Timing- What's the Secret to Comedy?

All In The Timing isn't just a hoary punchline - Q:What makes a great - A: TIMING- Q (continued) joke? - it's an evening of six comedy sketches at  59E59 Theater.   Although the show sometimes adopts the forms and techniques of improv, these are actually polished gems indeed, brought to you by writer David Ives (Venus in Fur), director John Rando (Urinetown) and a superb cast of four:Carson Elrod, Liv Rooth, Matthew Saldivar and Jenn Harris. All six sketches are funny, sometimes moving, sometimes pointed and not, in any way that I could discern, connected to one another.  My favorite was set in a lab at Columbia where three chimps, Milton, Swift and Kafka, were under observation by a professor waiting for Hamlet to emerge from their keyboard bangings.  The chimps were instantly and consistently recognizable as such, despite some fairly slick dialog and a tendency to take on the politics of their namesakes. I will not summarize further (I just got a scrabble puzzle from a college friend who used to play multiple games of chess simultaneously, while blindfolded, so I may have a long night in front of me). There is really only one more fact you need to know.  This is a limited run, get your tickets now if you still can.