Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Between the plan and the reality lies the Rudy campaign

The Rudy Plan- forget the early primaries in those hick states that will never love Rudy anyway. Rudy will just wait for Florida, a state with a lot of Yankee fans, while Romney, McCain, Huckabee and whoever beat each other up.
The Risk - Romney's big investment in early decision states pays off and he sweeps into Florida looking invincible on the momentum of victories in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada and a good showing in South Carolina.
What actually happens - Huckabee surges in Iowa and will continue to claim many votes from evangelicals, a big factor in Republican primaries. McCain revives in New Hampshire and triumphs in South Carolina. In sum, Rudy gets his dream scenario - he can charge into Florida offering leadership in a field of squabbling pygmies and even the religious right, a group whose skin crawls at the sight of Rudy, will split its vote between soul brother Huckabee and "winner" Romney.

The Rudy reality - He misses the headlines. Pat Robertson's endorsement doesn't mean much, even to evangelicals, as Huckabee bypasses the old leaders and goes straight to the young voters. Comedic news icons repeatedly mine Rudy's 9/11 obsession for laughs as the voters focus on the economy. Little things, like the fact that his current wife forgot a former husband, the fact that Rudy invented the vendetta and the unending troubles of Rudy's buddy Bernie, keep cropping up to fill the vacuum left by Rudy's non-campaign. He slips in the polls. The Florida campaign may end up with Rudy shopping for a nice place to retire - As Good As News hint - stay near Tampa, you'll love spring training.

Rudy, who will you blame when the early primary results look like they were scripted by your campaign manager and you lose Florida big-time anyway?

Newlyweds Seething After a Photo Studio Fails to Deliver - Speaking of vendetta, look carefully at the bride's expression in today's photo. The groom is miserable, no wedding pictures, photographer broke and incommunicado, no point in suing. The bride is wasting no energy on misery, she will kill someone very soon.

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