Friday, October 19, 2007


Who will the GOP nominate, a "winner" with money and national name recognition who can take on Hillary (the approach that got us George W. Bush in 2000) or a beloved social conservative who might make Goldwater's 1964 loss look like a cliffhanger?
-Mitt - Mormonism could not possibly be a problem as the moral majority Republican base is known for tolerance, but flip flopping on social issues is making everyone nervous and he's not catching on fast enough to convince anyone that he can beat Hillary.
-Rudy - failure to flip flop on social issues gets mixed results but the twin demons that once made Rudy's hold on NY popularity shaky are emerging again, it's not easy to run for President when you are a very angry man with a goofy streak (staged cell phone calls would work better in a stand up comedy routine Rudy).
-McCain - on a budget and stayin alive, but the base never liked him and he's not looking like a Hillary beater. At least Rudy's goofy phone calls are making the world forget Barbara Ann.
-Thompson - failed to learn his lines in time for his own campaign premier, the only time we will see this guy as President is in next season's "24".
-Huckabee - Former Baptist minister who's been consistently for making abortion a crime and against gay marriage. Also has a sense of humor, plays in a rock band, seems to approach others with tolerance and search for common ground. In other words, he just isn't angry enough to catch on with his natural constituency, the moral majority.
The Winner - Huckabee will gain as other candidates fade and drop like Brownback, but Mitt will prevail. Mitt will deliver a moving and dramatic statement dealing with his Mormon background and personal faith on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, come up better than expected in NH and use that, plus his personal fortune, to capture that "winner" glow the GOP seeks.

-Torre - Hank Steinbrenner crafts an ugly, PR oriented end to the Torre years. Hank, please, it may not be too late. Talk to Joe, tell him you are going to make a change but you still respect him and need his advice and kick him upstairs to an advisory job where he doesn't have to travel. Joe understands managers get fired. He might even like a chance to stay at home.
-LaRussa - Joe with a law degree and an ego - even Hank knows better.
-Mattingly - popular, but inexperienced. Does Hank want to win or just not get booed?
-Girardi - Has a history with the Yankees as player and coach. Yankees need someone to manage a transition to a staff led by Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy (plus Wang of course), someone to get consistency from Melky and Cano - Girardi made a green Marlins team a pennant contender, would be the logical choice for a Yankee team that should get younger fast.
The Winner - Mattingly - Hank, you will get booed anyway, not now, not in April, but next September.

Big East - tiebreaker is now a computer algorithm, the BCS disease is spreading. Rutgers, please win it on the field.

Pakistan -
- Musharraf - He's too pro-American, he's not Muslim enough, he's not doing enough to suppress fundamentalist rebels, the economy isn't booming like India, whine whine, whine, but the real issue remains, can this general figure out some way to get votes without the uniform?
-Bhutto - history of allowing family and friends to loot the treasury apparently does not bother faithful voters, but can she figure out how to campaign without leaving her bunker?
- Sharif - triumphal return ended with a surprise, as he was deported before he had time to go to the men's room while the supporters who met him at the airport were arrested. Musharrif getting advice form Karl Rove? Can Sharif run a campaign in abstentia that will get enough votes to threaten the legitimacy of the race crafted by Musharraf and Bhutto's deal? Hint - if you want to get popular without actually politicking - write a book on global warming and find a really good director to shoot the movie.
The Winner - Musharraf - Will find a nice tunic with a lot of buttons for the campaign trail, and if that doesn't work he'll just deport Bhutto, or any other candidate who's looking good in the polls.

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